Latest Hurricane Track Brings Irene Dangerously Close to Jersey Shore

The latest forecast calls for Hurricane Irene to pass much closer to Ocean City than predicted earlier in the week.

The Category 3 storm (sustained winds of 111 to 130 mph) will gain strength (possibly reaching Category 4) before making a direct pass over the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Saturday night (Aug. 27).

From there, Irene is expected to pass within 30 miles of Ocean City on a northward path that scrapes the East Coast. The storm is predicted to pass near or over the Jersey Shore on Sunday morning (Aug. 28).

"I'm not predicting a worst-case scenario," Dan Skeldon, WMGM TV-40 meteorologist, said on Thursday morning. "But it does look a little more likely."

Skeldon said he expects Irene to pass within 30 miles of Ocean City's beaches in either direction. He said the hurricane has the potential to rival the devastating 1944 hurricane and could be one of the worst Mid-Atlantic storms in a century.

"At the very least, we're looking at an epic rainmaker and tropical-force winds," Skeldon said.

"Irene is expected to track near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva coast Saturday night, then could pass within 30 miles of New York City Sunday evening as a weakening Category 2 hurricane," Kristina Pydynowski, Accuweather senior meteorologist, reported on Wednesday morning.

"On its current forecast path, Irene would spread destructive hurricane-force winds (gusts between 80 to 100 mph) across the Delmarva coast, eastern New Jersey, New York City, western Long Island and southwestern New England," Pydynowski said.

Ocean City Emergency Management Coordinator Frank Donato said Thursday morning that public notices will go out this morning (Aug. 25) urging residents and visitors to monitor the weather and be prepared for flooding, high winds and power outages. He said the city could potentially decide on asking for voluntary evacuations after a 1 p.m. meeting with emergency planners throughout the county.

Avalon and Stone Harbor have already called for voluntary evacuations. Donato said information will be posted on the city's website, ocnj.us, and aired on public access Channel 2.

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For more information on hurricane preparation for families and individuals, see the Federal Emergency Management Agency's guide.
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The surf on Thursday morning showed no signs of the approaching hurricane, but Ocean City surf shops are predicting building surf through the day with overhead waves rolling in by Friday. From there, conditions will deteriorate rapidly by Saturday and Sunday with what the National Weather Service is calling "life-threatening surf."

Donato said the public should be prepared for a storm that could possibly cause power outages and flooding that could leave motorists stranded for an extended period.

Donato said the storm will pass Ocean City during a new moon tide that peaks at 8:30 p.m. Sunday on the bay side of Ocean City. The exceptionally high tide would add to flooding caused by potentially heavy rain (if the storm comes close enough) and strong onshore winds. High tide on Sunday morning is at 8:05 a.m. at the Ninth Street Bridge.

Ocean City Beach Patrol Director of Operations Tom Mullineaux said Wednesday that crews are starting to move lifeguard boats off the beaches to be stored at the patrol's boathouse at 46th Street and West Avenue.

Several boats were damaged beyond repair by powerful winds from a severe thunderstorm in July, and Mullineaux said the patrol wouldn't take any chances with leaving boats on the beach as a hurricane or tropical storm passes near.

Mullineaux said it's too early to tell, but there's a possibility the beach patrol would close the beaches to swimming if the surf gets too dangerous as the storm approaches.

The 7th Street Surf Shop is sponsoring an Eastern Surfing Association contest 8 a.m. Saturday on the beach at Seventh Street. Call (609) 884-5277 to see if the event is still on.

The Ocean City Pops has an "Our Three Tenors II" concert scheduled for Sunday evening on the Ocean City Music Pier. A box office representative said the Pops has no immediate plan to address a potential postponement or cancellation.